Abstract
The introduction of Xylella fastidiosa in Apulia has resulted in the desiccation of millions of olive trees. Here, we employ a multi-country partial equilibrium model to analyze the possible distribution of economic impacts among olive oil processors and consumers. The results suggest that the majority of the impacts would fall on consumers as a consequence of higher prices. If the disease disperses beyond the current extent in Italy the decline in consumer welfare ranges from 4.1 billion to 10.3 billion Euro over the course of 50 years depending on the rate of disease spread. In other words, each of the 195 million households in Europe would incur additional costs ranging 63 cents to 1.6 Euro every year over the course of 50 years. Introductions of the pathogen into Greece or Spain could cost European consumers between 0.4 billion to 3.3 billion Euro and 1.8 billion to 53 billion Euro, respectively. This would correspond to additional annual household costs ranging 6 to 51 cents and 27 cents to 8.2 Euro, respectively. As significant economic consequences from further dispersal of the disease are borne by consumers, the economic threat is not limited to producers but should be contextualized as a societal problem.
Kevin Schneider
Scientific Officer
My research interests include machine learning, simulations, and bio-economic modelling with an agricultural and ecological focus.