Species Distribution Models

Xylella fastidiosa is one of the most dangerous plant-pathogenic bacteria worldwide. Regulatory measures were enacted in response to the detection of the subsp. pauca (Xfp) in Italian olives in 2013, but the current impact is nevertheless major. We developed a spatially explicit bio-economic model to compute potential future economic impact of the Xfp strain. Uncertainty on spread is accounted for by simulating different scenarios. The majority of orchards were found to be within climatically suitable territory. Even under slow disease spread and the ability to replant with resistant cultivars, projections of future economic impact in affected countries run in the billions of Euros. Our findings highlight the importance of minimizing disease spread and implementing adaptation measures in affected areas.